Seismic24 hoursmatched
Seismic: 67% chance of at least one M5.0+ earthquake within 103 km of 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-15 12:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-16 12:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occurs between 2026-08-15T12:01:13.433Z and 2026-08-16T12:01:13.433Z, within 103 km of -8.26, 121.0839, meeting or exceeding 5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-15 14:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "M 5.2 - 78 km NW of Ende, Indonesia" (2026-08-15T12:14:39.321+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: ac92024c-f2d3-4ec1-b2b5-bd3b7f2a9db0
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.