Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 561 km of IL, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-17 00:02 UTC
Closes
2026-08-18 00:02 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-17T00:02:43.359Z and 2026-08-18T00:02:43.359Z, within 561 km of 40.4865, -91.7315, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-17 04:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Flood Warning alert in KS" (2026-08-17T02:18:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: be6956e7-8235-406e-b8c0-825ad3c2ed34, ee0dd7e2-46fb-4409-84ba-dff484f0b2d2, 61a66560-bf15-48a1-9ee1-87d45984664e, b1e9590a-5f87-4e71-8744-014fc3db2995, 5c3a3ea4-001d-4cf1-9cb5-3f8f00acf1d6, 959e78ba-5950-4e98-b91d-fba9e23d4dde, e85298bf-991a-4080-8161-03356682dc38, c3fe0b09-a8b1-41d0-8e7f-e196e000422a, 45882f08-f289-4a7a-bc7d-3916ede8a72a, 2741c432-d72b-4b7c-89e7-e3a8c3625d08, 45835427-cb91-48e8-bc3a-3697b3b4387c, fe65b4a2-fe6d-4812-bfe3-bb6ec2cf7793, be1323a2-a266-4637-b767-2d2ae33e46bc, 36fb26c2-1451-43ef-b75b-3fef19d45f25, 4a7ed68a-4829-4c9c-9986-5fbae38be6bd, 6de99271-bbdf-446c-a8f3-e8305ec4238c, 4f2a9dbd-c01c-461e-b69b-bc933a0b91b2, dfeafbab-9b13-450d-85b8-8f3556197c1a, 6144f1e7-4327-480a-8b06-50f4a7e27c92, c00a0785-931b-429e-8b84-eb192f719684, 8b0ebec6-4731-4911-909a-17351b21ad2c, 799a8b1d-789f-4c5f-97b8-8f831d7b9b66, 9aaedbd2-a6af-4457-9330-92e2f6cdfda6, 9f401dd0-c623-4bfd-938a-eb14270ce1c8, 215ca971-becb-4727-9212-63c9d823b1db, febe4fb2-fe7a-4799-87c6-9f98a975d97b, a61b23ee-d825-4c30-a738-548966a64deb, c660b5f7-6232-49a6-871b-bb3039a0c282, 81c7f655-8532-463f-89ef-90c939a35654
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.