Seismic24 hoursopen
Seismic: 67% chance of an M5.0+ earthquake within 294 km of Timor-Leste (nationwide) and 272 km WSW of Tual, Indonesia in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
57–76%
Opens
2026-10-01 14:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-02 14:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occur between 2026-10-01T14:00:33.156Z and 2026-10-02T14:00:33.156Z, within 294 km of -7.4936, 128.048, meeting or exceeding 5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5
- min event count
- 1
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.