Geopolitical30 daysopen
Geopolitical: 69% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 65+) on 2 separate days within 344 km of Sudan (nationwide) in the next 30 days.
Probability
69%
Interval
60–79%
Opens
2026-10-02 02:00 UTC
Closes
2026-11-01 02:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 2 separate days in the geopolitical domain occur between 2026-10-02T02:00:34.182Z and 2026-11-01T02:00:34.182Z, within 344 km of 13.4256, 30.0987, meeting or exceeding 65. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 65
- min event count
- 2
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.