Geopolitical24 hoursmatched
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 747 km of Syria in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-16 02:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 02:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the geopolitical domain occurs between 2026-08-16T02:01:37.395Z and 2026-08-17T02:01:37.395Z, within 747 km of 32.6833, 35.2309, meeting or exceeding 55. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 55
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-17 04:01 UTC with a match score of 1.00.
Matched "Elevated coercive activity in Jordan" (2026-08-17T00:31:07.137+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 2fa7dc17-1220-4832-900e-30f17024dcb1
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.