Seismic30 daysopen
Seismic: 68% chance of an M6.0+ earthquake on 2 separate days within 474 km of El Salvador (nationwide); 142 km SSW of La Esperanza (El Zapotal), Mexico and 1 more in the next 30 days.
Probability
68%
Interval
59–76%
Opens
2026-09-30 12:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-30 12:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 2 separate days in the seismic domain occur between 2026-09-30T12:00:33.499Z and 2026-10-30T12:00:33.499Z, within 474 km of 15.5874, -92.9309, meeting or exceeding 6. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 6
- min event count
- 2
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
Was this useful?
Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.