Seismic30 daysopen
Seismic: 68% chance of an M6.0+ earthquake on 2 separate days within 444 km of Pakistan (nationwide) and 7 km ESE of Baghlān, Afghanistan in the next 30 days.
Probability
68%
Interval
59–76%
Opens
2026-10-01 10:00 UTC
Closes
2026-10-31 10:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 2 separate days in the seismic domain occur between 2026-10-01T10:00:33.506Z and 2026-10-31T10:00:33.506Z, within 444 km of 32.2197, 69.9261, meeting or exceeding 6. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 6
- min event count
- 2
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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