Seismic24 hoursmatched
Seismic: 67% chance of at least one M5.0+ earthquake within 100 km of 125 km NNE of Palu, Indonesia in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-16 02:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 02:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- seismic
- metric
- magnitude
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the seismic domain occurs between 2026-08-16T02:01:37.395Z and 2026-08-17T02:01:37.395Z, within 100 km of -0.002, 121.1405, meeting or exceeding 5. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 5
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-17 04:01 UTC with a match score of 0.75.
Matched "M 4.5 - 35 km E of Poso, Indonesia" (2026-08-17T01:01:29.183+00:00) with a match score of 0.752 (geo 0.481, intensity 0.54).
Evidence events: 6a2cf261-f35c-4a9d-b70e-edd899851e60
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.