Geopolitical12 monthsopen
Geopolitical: 80% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 72+) on 3 separate days within 819 km of Haiti (nationwide); Jamaica (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months.
Probability
80%
Interval
71–89%
Opens
2026-10-02 02:00 UTC
Closes
2027-10-02 02:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when outcome events on 3 separate days in the geopolitical domain occur between 2026-10-02T02:00:34.182Z and 2027-10-02T02:00:34.182Z, within 819 km of 19.2931, -73.446, meeting or exceeding 72. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 72
- min event count
- 3
Outcome
The window is still open. Tremor grades this automatically against independently ingested outcome events once it closes — the probability above is never revised.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.