Atmospheric24 hoursmatched
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 405 km of MT, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-17 02:00 UTC
Closes
2026-08-18 02:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-17T02:00:08.226Z and 2026-08-18T02:00:08.226Z, within 405 km of 45.34, -111.2178, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-17 04:01 UTC with a match score of 0.81.
Matched "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in WY" (2026-08-17T02:20:00+00:00) with a match score of 0.809 (geo 0.363, intensity 1).
Evidence events: 1b4a1507-093f-475b-b0de-0e84c63bd8ed
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.