Atmospheric24 hourspartial
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 357 km of HI, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-17 02:00 UTC
Closes
2026-08-18 02:00 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-17T02:00:08.226Z and 2026-08-18T02:00:08.226Z, within 357 km of 20.4105, -156.6109, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved partial on 2026-08-18 04:00 UTC with a match score of 0.70.
Partial: "Special Marine Warning alert in Atlantic offshore waters" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.
Evidence events: ea9bc554-94a2-4ae0-a7ef-fef72916d740
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.