Geopolitical24 hoursexpired miss
Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 849 km of CO, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
67%
Interval
60–74%
Opens
2026-08-17 04:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-18 04:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- geopolitical
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the geopolitical domain occurs between 2026-08-17T04:01:01.967Z and 2026-08-18T04:01:01.967Z, within 849 km of 37.9584, -103.4015, meeting or exceeding 55. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 55
Outcome
Resolved expired miss on 2026-08-18 06:01 UTC.
Window closed with no outcome event meeting the resolution rule. Counted as a miss in the scorecard.
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.