Atmospheric24 hoursmatched
Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 639 km of NE, United States in the next 24 hours.
Probability
69%
Interval
62–76%
Opens
2026-08-16 16:01 UTC
Closes
2026-08-17 16:01 UTC
Resolution rule
Fixed at publication time; this is what the outcome is graded against.
- kind
- event_in_window
- domain
- atmospheric
- metric
- severity
- description
- Resolves MATCHED when an outcome event in the atmospheric domain occurs between 2026-08-16T16:01:03.791Z and 2026-08-17T16:01:03.791Z, within 639 km of 39.7086, -102.172, meeting or exceeding 62. Otherwise EXPIRED_MISS at window close.
- min intensity
- 62
Outcome
Resolved matched on 2026-08-16 18:01 UTC with a match score of 0.84.
Matched "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in IL" (2026-08-16T16:59:00+00:00) with a match score of 0.842 (geo 0.475, intensity 1).
Evidence events: ce677ba8-2623-4a5c-9916-6ec733a54f65, 3ef690f2-cb17-4a0a-a960-fdbc4a55e8c8
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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.