Daily Brief · 2026-08-31

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-31

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 461 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Spain (nationwide) — 100/100 across Geopolitical + Space weather (base 80.15).

Spain (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.25× convergence multiplier to a base score of 80.15. Contributing signals: Spain: coverage of coercive events 3.274σ above its 14-day baseline across 40 articles, led by Rabat; Spain: coverage of coercive events 4.538σ above its 14-day baseline across 54 articles, led by Spain (police); CME at 513 km/s left the Sun at 2026-08-30T08:55:00.000Z.

• Taiwan (nationwide) — 100/100 across Geopolitical + Space weather (base 85.73).

Taiwan (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.17× convergence multiplier to a base score of 85.73. Contributing signals: Taiwan: coverage of coercive events 33.44σ above its 14-day baseline across 182 articles, led by Taiwan; Taiwan: coverage of coercive events 2.07σ above its 14-day baseline across 13 articles, led by Taiwan; CME at 513 km/s left the Sun at 2026-08-30T08:55:00.000Z.

• Arizona, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 76.36).

Arizona, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.31× convergence multiplier to a base score of 76.36. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arizona; CME at 513 km/s left the Sun at 2026-08-30T08:55:00.000Z.

• Baghdad, Iraq; Tehran, Iran and 1 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Baghdad, Iraq; Tehran, Iran and 1 more is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 43.7 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 39.4 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 38.5 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Tehran, Iran — 37.8 °C.

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (nationwide) — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 45.7 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 44.9 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 43.5 °C; Bahrain: coverage of coercive events 6.273σ above its 14-day baseline across 32 articles, led by Bahrain.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 82 km of Gulf coastal waters and Florida, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-30 22:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 370 km of Atlantic coastal waters, United States; Haiti (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-30 20:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 431 km of Switzerland (nationwide); Germany (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 610 km of Texas, Colorado and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-31 00:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 655 km of Utah, Nevada and 3 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-30 18:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 413 km of Baghdad, Iraq and Tehran, Iran in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-30 10:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 895 km of Baghdad, Iraq; Tehran, Iran and 1 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-30 16:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 674 km of Florida, Gulf coastal waters and 4 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-30 06:00 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).