Daily Brief · 2026-08-30

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-30

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 430 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Thailand (nationwide) — 100/100 across Geopolitical + Space weather (base 71.54).

Thailand (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.40× convergence multiplier to a base score of 71.54. Contributing signals: Thailand: coverage of coercive events 3.453σ above its 14-day baseline across 45 articles, led by Thailand (government); Thailand: coverage of coercive events 2.985σ above its 14-day baseline across 40 articles, led by Thai (military); CME at 577 km/s left the Sun at 2026-08-29T21:10:00.000Z.

• Oregon, United States; Washington, United States and 1 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Seismic + Space weather (base 100).

Oregon, United States; Washington, United States and 1 more is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, seismic, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Freeze Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Oregon; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Washington; Fire Weather Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Oregon; Freeze Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Oregon.

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (nationwide) — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 45.7 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 44.9 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 43.5 °C; Bahrain: coverage of coercive events 6.273σ above its 14-day baseline across 32 articles, led by Bahrain.

• Arizona, Utah and 1 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 100).

Arizona, Utah and 1 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Flash Flood Warning — 4 active NWS alerts in Arizona; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Utah; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arizona; Flash Flood Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Utah.

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (nationwide) — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 45.7 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 45.1 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 44.9 °C; Bahrain: coverage of coercive events 2.278σ above its 14-day baseline across 12 articles, led by Bahrain (civilians).

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 866 km of North Carolina, Georgia and 10 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-29 06:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 279 km of Oregon, United States and 95 km W of Petrolia, CA in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-29 18:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 724 km of Florida, Gulf coastal waters and 4 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-30 00:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 1000 km of Baghdad, Iraq; Georgia (nationwide) and 2 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-29 22:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 185 km of Gulf coastal waters, United States and Cuba (nationwide) in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-29 06:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 1018 km of Iowa, United States; Nebraska, United States and 3 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-29 12:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 638 km of United Kingdom (nationwide); Belgium (nationwide) and 3 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-30 00:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 537 km of Arizona, Utah and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-29 12:01 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).