Daily Brief · 2026-08-28

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-28

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 835 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Baghdad, Iraq; Tehran, Iran and 4 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Baghdad, Iraq; Tehran, Iran and 4 more is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 47.1 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 46.8 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 45.7 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 48.5 °C.

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Bahrain (nationwide) and 1 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Bahrain (nationwide) and 1 more is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 45.1 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 44.8 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 44.4 °C; Bahrain: coverage of coercive events 5.895σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Criminal (criminal group).

• Colorado, New Mexico and 4 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Colorado, New Mexico and 4 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Colorado; Flash Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in New Mexico; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Wyoming; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Nebraska.

• Indiana, Mississippi and 9 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Indiana, Mississippi and 9 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Indiana; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Mississippi; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arkansas; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Alabama.

• Gulf coastal waters, United States; Atlantic coastal waters, United States and 4 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Gulf coastal waters, United States; Atlantic coastal waters, United States and 4 more is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Special Marine Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Gulf coastal waters; Special Marine Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Atlantic coastal waters; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Florida; Flash Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Georgia.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 794 km of Colorado, New Mexico and 4 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-27 10:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 50 km of California, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-27 06:03 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 722 km of Gulf coastal waters, United States; Atlantic coastal waters, United States and 6 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-27 18:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 824 km of Serbia (nationwide); Bosnia-Herzegovina (nationwide) and 5 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-27 16:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 326 km of Oregon, Idaho and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-27 10:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 506 km of California and Utah, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-27 22:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 864 km of Georgia, Illinois and 3 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-28 00:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 425 km of Oklahoma and Texas, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-27 06:03 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 7 healthy, 0 degraded, 1 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).