Daily Brief · 2026-08-26

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-26

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 557 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Chad (nationwide) — 100/100 across Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Chad (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Chad: coverage of coercive events 4.879σ above its 14-day baseline across 25 articles, led by Chad; M6.9 solar flare peaked at 2026-08-25T10:02:00Z; M1.9 solar flare peaked at 2026-08-25T01:26:00Z; M1.8 solar flare peaked at 2026-08-25T06:40:00Z.

• California, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Space weather (base 100).

California, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Red Flag Warning — 1 active NWS alert in California; Extreme Heat Watch — 4 active NWS alerts in California; Extreme Heat Warning — 1 active NWS alert in California; Fire Weather Watch — 1 active NWS alert in California.

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Georgia (nationwide) — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Georgia (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 44.4 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 44.1 °C; Saudi Arabia: coverage of coercive events 2.439σ above its 14-day baseline across 18 articles, led by Saudi (government); Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 43.6 °C.

• South Dakota, United States; Nebraska, United States and 4 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

South Dakota, United States; Nebraska, United States and 4 more is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in South Dakota; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Nebraska; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Wyoming; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in North Dakota.

• Arizona, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 98.26).

Arizona, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.02× convergence multiplier to a base score of 98.26. Contributing signals: Extreme Heat Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Arizona; M6.9 solar flare peaked at 2026-08-25T10:02:00Z; M1.9 solar flare peaked at 2026-08-25T01:26:00Z; M1.8 solar flare peaked at 2026-08-25T06:40:00Z.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 650 km of Atlantic coastal waters, United States; Cuba (nationwide) and 1 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-26 02:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 340 km of Oregon, Idaho and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-26 02:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 445 km of Nebraska, Wyoming and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-26 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 50 km of California, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-26 02:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 50 km of California, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-26 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 556 km of Florida, Georgia and 5 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-26 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 340 km of Oregon, Idaho and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-26 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 146 km of Arizona, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-26 04:00 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).