Daily Brief · 2026-08-24

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-24

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 506 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Washington, Idaho and 2 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 100).

Washington, Idaho and 2 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Washington; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Idaho; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Montana; Red Flag Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Montana.

• Oregon and Washington, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric (base 100).

Oregon and Washington, United States is scoring 100/100. A single domain (atmospheric) drives this cluster; no convergence multiplier applied. Contributing signals: Red Flag Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Oregon; Fire Weather Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Oregon; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Washington.

• Mississippi, Arkansas and 2 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Mississippi, Arkansas and 2 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Mississippi; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arkansas; Flood Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Illinois; Severe Thunderstorm Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Missouri.

• Baghdad, Iraq; Tehran, Iran and 1 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Baghdad, Iraq; Tehran, Iran and 1 more is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 47.3 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 46.7 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Baghdad, Iraq — 45.1 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Tehran, Iran — 39 °C.

• Arizona and Utah, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 100).

Arizona and Utah, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arizona; Flash Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arizona; Flash Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Utah; Extreme Heat Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arizona.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 733 km of South Dakota, Montana and 4 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-24 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 713 km of Montana, Washington and 3 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 18:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 356 km of South Dakota, Colorado and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 16:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 697 km of Ohio, United States; Indiana, United States and 11 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-24 02:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 777 km of Ohio, United States; Indiana, United States and 5 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-24 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 474 km of Lake Erie waters, United States; Lake Ontario waters, United States and 7 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-24 00:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 477 km of Washington, Idaho and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 10:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 478 km of Nebraska, Colorado and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 22:00 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).