Daily Brief · 2026-08-23

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-23

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 675 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Florida, Gulf coastal waters and 5 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Space weather (base 100).

Florida, Gulf coastal waters and 5 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Florida; Special Marine Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Gulf coastal waters; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 3 active NWS alerts in Louisiana; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Mississippi.

• Chad (nationwide) — 100/100 across Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 92.56).

Chad (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.08× convergence multiplier to a base score of 92.56. Contributing signals: Chad: coverage of coercive events 6.663σ above its 14-day baseline across 34 articles, led by Cleveland (police); Chad: coverage of coercive events 6.079σ above its 14-day baseline across 31 articles, led by Chad; CME at 727 km/s left the Sun at 2026-08-22T11:04:00.000Z; 10y-2y curve at 0.5 (-0.314σ vs trailing year).

• Atlantic coastal waters, Pennsylvania and 1 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Space weather (base 100).

Atlantic coastal waters, Pennsylvania and 1 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Special Marine Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Atlantic coastal waters; Flood Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Pennsylvania; Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in North Carolina; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in North Carolina.

• Arkansas, Mississippi and 8 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Arkansas, Mississippi and 8 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arkansas; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Mississippi; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Tennessee; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Missouri.

• Utah, Idaho and 7 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 100).

Utah, Idaho and 7 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Utah; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Idaho; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Wyoming; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Nebraska.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 627 km of Utah, Wyoming and 5 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 04:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 388 km of Montana, Idaho and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 427 km of Montana, Oregon and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 04:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 432 km of Rome, Italy and Switzerland (nationwide) in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 04:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 432 km of Rome, Italy and Switzerland (nationwide) in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 228 km of 21.0, 142.3; 20.4, 143.6 and 2 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 467 km of Mississippi, Arkansas and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 533 km of California, Nevada and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-23 06:00 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).