Daily Brief · 2026-08-22

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-22

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 760 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Colorado, Nebraska and 4 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Colorado, Nebraska and 4 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Colorado; Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Nebraska; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Colorado; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 3 active NWS alerts in Nebraska.

• Nevada, Oregon and 3 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Space weather (base 100).

Nevada, Oregon and 3 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Red Flag Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Nevada; Red Flag Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Oregon; Red Flag Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in California; Fire Weather Watch — 1 active NWS alert in Idaho.

• Illinois, Wisconsin and 7 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Illinois, Wisconsin and 7 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Illinois; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Illinois; Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Wisconsin; Special Marine Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Lake Erie waters.

• North Carolina, Atlantic coastal waters and 4 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Space weather (base 100).

North Carolina, Atlantic coastal waters and 4 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in North Carolina; Special Marine Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Atlantic coastal waters; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in South Carolina; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Florida.

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (nationwide) — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 43.6 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 42.7 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 42.2 °C; Bahrain: coverage of coercive events 3.954σ above its 14-day baseline across 20 articles, led by Bahraini.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 742 km of Nevada, Oregon and 3 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 18:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 759 km of Louisiana, Alabama and 5 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-22 00:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 518 km of Kansas, Nebraska and 3 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 08:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 655 km of Texas and Oklahoma, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 20:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 358 km of Oregon, Idaho and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 10:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 432 km of California, Arizona and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 08:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 829 km of Minnesota, United States; South Dakota, United States and 2 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 10:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 1047 km of Ohio, Maryland and 9 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 12:00 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).