Daily Brief · 2026-08-21

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-21

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 951 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Arizona, United States; California, United States and 2 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Arizona, United States; California, United States and 2 more is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arizona; Child Abduction Emergency — 4 active NWS alerts in California; Fire Weather Watch — 1 active NWS alert in California; Flash Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arizona.

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 42.2 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 41.8 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 42.9 °C; Saudi Arabia: coverage of coercive events 9.453σ above its 14-day baseline across 56 articles, led by Iran.

• New Jersey, United States; Pennsylvania, United States and 13 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

New Jersey, United States; Pennsylvania, United States and 13 more is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in New Jersey; Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Pennsylvania; Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Maryland; Special Marine Warning — 6 active NWS alerts in Atlantic offshore waters.

• Ohio, United States; Kentucky, United States and 12 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Ohio, United States; Kentucky, United States and 12 more is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Flood Warning — 12 active NWS alerts in Ohio; Tornado Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Kentucky; Flood Warning — 4 active NWS alerts in Indiana; Flash Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Ohio.

• China (nationwide) — 100/100 across Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

China (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: China: coverage of coercive events 4.216σ above its 14-day baseline across 90 articles, led by Chinese; China: coverage of coercive events 2.554σ above its 14-day baseline across 58 articles, led by Tibet; China: coverage of coercive events 0.917σ above its 14-day baseline across 28 articles, led by Prison (police); China: coverage of coercive events 1.073σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Chinese (government).

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 258 km of California and Nevada, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 02:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 535 km of Arizona, New Mexico and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 02:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 801 km of Mississippi, Tennessee and 10 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 358 km of Oregon, Washington and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 439 km of Kansas, Nebraska and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 643 km of Maryland, Virginia and 11 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 02:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 362 km of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain (nationwide) in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 257 km of Arizona and New Mexico, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-21 04:00 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).