Daily Brief · 2026-08-20

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-20

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 819 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• Nebraska, United States; Kansas, United States and 8 more — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Nebraska, United States; Kansas, United States and 8 more is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Tornado Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Nebraska; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Kansas; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Colorado; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Nebraska.

• Mississippi and Louisiana, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Space weather (base 100).

Mississippi and Louisiana, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Mississippi; Extreme Heat Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Mississippi; Extreme Heat Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Louisiana; M1.0 solar flare peaked at 2026-08-19T18:51:00Z.

• Greece (nationwide) and Montenegro (nationwide) — 100/100 across Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Greece (nationwide) and Montenegro (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Greece: coverage of coercive events 5.924σ above its 14-day baseline across 41 articles, led by Greece; Greece: coverage of coercive events 4.796σ above its 14-day baseline across 30 articles, led by Greece; Greece: coverage of coercive events 5.291σ above its 14-day baseline across 29 articles, led by Greece (military); Greece: coverage of coercive events 2.691σ above its 14-day baseline across 20 articles, led by Greek (media).

• Mexico (nationwide) — 100/100 across Geopolitical + Space weather (base 84.42).

Mexico (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.18× convergence multiplier to a base score of 84.42. Contributing signals: Mexico: coverage of coercive events 4.037σ above its 14-day baseline across 23 articles, led by Protester (political opposition); M1.0 solar flare peaked at 2026-08-19T18:51:00Z; Geomagnetic activity at Kp 5.00 — G1 (minor) storm level; Geomagnetic activity at Kp 4.33.

• New Mexico, Arizona and 2 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

New Mexico, Arizona and 2 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in New Mexico; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Arizona; Flash Flood Warning — 4 active NWS alerts in New Mexico; Flash Flood Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Arizona.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 65 km of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-20 04:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 418 km of Arizona and New Mexico, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-20 06:03 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 379 km of Israel (nationwide); West Bank (nationwide) and 6 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-20 06:03 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 522 km of California, United States; Arizona, United States and 1 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-20 04:01 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 130 km of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-20 06:03 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 730 km of Gulf coastal waters, United States; Atlantic coastal waters, United States and 3 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-20 06:03 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 476 km of Kansas, Oklahoma and 3 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-20 06:03 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 877 km of Baghdad, Iraq; Tehran, Iran and 4 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-20 06:03 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• No prediction windows closed in this period.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).