Daily Brief · 2026-08-19

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-19

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 660 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

• India (nationwide) — 100/100 across Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 87.64).

India (nationwide) is scoring 100/100. 3 domains overlap here (economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.14× convergence multiplier to a base score of 87.64. Contributing signals: India: 10 coercive or violent events across 52 articles, led by Delhi (business); India: 6 coercive or violent events across 40 articles, led by Police (police); India: 6 coercive or violent events across 43 articles, led by Indore; India: 6 coercive or violent events across 36 articles, led by Student (education).

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 45.8 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 45.1 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 42.9 °C; Extreme heat forecast at Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — 46 °C.

• New Mexico and Arizona, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

New Mexico and Arizona, United States is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Flash Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in New Mexico; Extreme Heat Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Arizona; Extreme Heat Watch — 1 active NWS alert in AZ; United States: 21 coercive or violent events across 77 articles, led by United States (government).

• South Carolina, Atlantic coastal waters and 14 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

South Carolina, Atlantic coastal waters and 14 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Extreme Heat Warning — 3 active NWS alerts in South Carolina; Special Marine Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Atlantic coastal waters; Extreme Heat Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in North Carolina; Extreme Heat Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Florida.

• Kansas, Arkansas and 2 more, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Economic + Geopolitical + Space weather (base 100).

Kansas, Arkansas and 2 more, United States is scoring 100/100. 4 domains overlap here (atmospheric, economic, geopolitical, space weather), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Kansas; Extreme Heat Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in Arkansas; Extreme Heat Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Oklahoma; Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in Nebraska.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 754 km of New Mexico, Arizona and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-19 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 195 km of Atlantic coastal waters, Atlantic offshore waters and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-19 04:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 562 km of Alabama, Gulf coastal waters and 5 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-19 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 897 km of Wisconsin, United States; Kansas, United States and 9 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-19 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 806 km of New Mexico, Texas and 1 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-19 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 701 km of South Dakota, United States; Montana, United States and 3 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-19 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 375 km of New Mexico and Arizona, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-19 06:00 UTC.
• [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 722 km of Kansas, Arkansas and 2 more, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-19 06:00 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

• EXPIRED_MISS (forecast 67%): Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 849 km of CO, United States in the next 24 hours.

Window closed with no outcome event meeting the resolution rule. Counted as a miss in the scorecard.

CALIBRATION

• Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
• No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

• 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).