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Daily Brief · 2026-08-18

Published 2026-08-18 06:01 UTC · global score 100/100

critical

TREMOR DAILY BRIEF — 2026-08-18

Global Tremor Score: 100/100 (critical). 783 signals ingested in the last 24 hours.

WHERE SIGNALS ARE CONVERGING

  • United Kingdom — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical (base 100).

United Kingdom is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: United Kingdom: 11 coercive or violent events across 41 articles; United Kingdom: 13 coercive or violent events across 51 articles; United Kingdom: 7 coercive or violent events across 40 articles; United Kingdom: 12 coercive or violent events across 53 articles.

  • IN, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical (base 100).

IN, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Flood Warning — 9 active NWS alerts in IN; Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in IL; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in IL; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in MO.

  • US, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Seismic (base 100).

US, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, seismic), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Local Area Emergency — 3 active NWS alerts in US; Local Area Emergency — 3 active NWS alerts in US; Local Area Emergency — 3 active NWS alerts in US; Flash Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in CO.

  • NE, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric + Geopolitical (base 100).

NE, United States is scoring 100/100. 2 domains overlap here (atmospheric, geopolitical), applying a 1.00× convergence multiplier to a base score of 100. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in NE; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in NE; Flood Warning — 1 active NWS alert in KS; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 2 active NWS alerts in NE.

  • MT, United States — 100/100 across Atmospheric (base 100).

MT, United States is scoring 100/100. A single domain (atmospheric) drives this cluster; no convergence multiplier applied. Contributing signals: Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in MT; Severe Thunderstorm Warning — 1 active NWS alert in MT; Tropical Storm Warning — 9 active NWS alerts in US; Tropical Storm Warning — 9 active NWS alerts in US.

OUTLOOKS OPENED

  • [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 354 km of OK, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-17 08:01 UTC.
  • [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 307 km of Pakistan in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-17 10:01 UTC.
  • [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 198 km of Oklahoma and Texas, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-18 02:00 UTC.
  • [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 508 km of AZ, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-17 16:01 UTC.
  • [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 744 km of South Dakota, United States, Nebraska, United States and 5 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-18 00:01 UTC.
  • [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 228 km of Jordan in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-17 08:01 UTC.
  • [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 458 km of Florida, United States, Atlantic coastal waters and 4 more in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-18 00:01 UTC.
  • [12 months] Atmospheric: 84% chance of an NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert on 3 separate days within 431 km of MT, United States in the next 12 months. Window closes 2027-08-17 10:01 UTC.

WHAT RESOLVED

  • PARTIAL (forecast 69%): Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 538 km of WE in the next 24 hours.

Partial: "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in Arkansas" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.

  • PARTIAL (forecast 67%): Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 938 km of CO, United States in the next 24 hours.

Partial: "Elevated coercive activity in Australia" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.

  • PARTIAL (forecast 67%): Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 852 km of PA, United States in the next 24 hours.

Partial: "Elevated coercive activity in Australia" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.

  • MATCHED (forecast 69%): Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 849 km of CO, United States in the next 24 hours.

Matched "Flash Flood Warning alert in CO" (2026-08-17T06:42:00+00:00) with a match score of 1 (geo 1, intensity 1).

  • PARTIAL (forecast 67%): Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 207 km of Yemen in the next 24 hours.

Partial: "Elevated coercive activity in Australia" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.

  • PARTIAL (forecast 67%): Geopolitical: 67% chance of a sustained escalation in negative coverage (Tremor severity 55+) within 648 km of NE, United States in the next 24 hours.

Partial: "Elevated coercive activity in Australia" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.

  • PARTIAL (forecast 69%): Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 290 km of WE in the next 24 hours.

Partial: "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in South Dakota" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.

  • PARTIAL (forecast 69%): Atmospheric: 69% chance of at least one NWS Severe-or-higher weather alert within 305 km of Pakistan in the next 24 hours.

Partial: "Severe Thunderstorm Warning alert in South Dakota" satisfied the domain and window but scored 0.7, short of the 0.75 threshold.

CALIBRATION

  • Resolved predictions: 0. Brier score: n/a. Hit rate above 50% confidence: n/a.
  • No resolved predictions yet.

SOURCE HEALTH

  • 8 healthy, 0 degraded, 0 down.

Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings. For official alerts always follow your national agency (USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC, or your local civil-protection authority).

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Tremor publishes probabilities, not warnings, and is not an emergency service. For official alerts follow USGS, NOAA/NWS, NASA SWPC or your national authority.